Draft 2022 Scoping Plan Expected in Early May

CARB staff has indicated that the long-awaited draft for the 2022 Scoping Plan could be released as early as May 10th. Over the past two months, CARB has held a series of workshops to unveil the initial modeling results on emission reductions, air quality improvements, health benefits, and economic impacts stemming from the four pathways presented to achieve carbon neutrality.

Based on this cumulative data, staff has selected Scenario 3 as their preferred pathway (staff presentation, slides 14-15). This alternative would achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 using a broader set of options. It also aligns better with the Governor’s Executive Order and related statutes.  Further, Scenario 3 has the lowest cost expenditure and job loss numbers while achieving health benefits savings that are comparable to the more aggressive options. Staff felt that both options to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035 (Scenarios 1 and 2) were too aggressive and that the other 2045 alternative (Scenario 4) required a much slower clean technology adoption time frame.   

CNGVC certainly agrees with staff’s determination that a 2045 time frame is much more reasonable, feasible and consistent with existing law.  And, while the preference for Scenario 3 is encouraging and consistent with CNGVC public comment to staff following the March 15th workshop, more details are still needed. We hope for more clarity in the draft when released.

Once the draft Plan has been released, staff will make their presentation to the CARB Board at their June 23rd meeting.  Any revisions or modifications will occur over the summer via ongoing stakeholder input and additional modeling exercises. The final Plan will then be released in the Fall 2022 with a Board vote scheduled shortly thereafter.